Surge in Migrant Arrivals as Calm October Seas Reopen Dangerous Route to Canary Islands

The calm Atlantic seas of October have once again reopened the perilous migration route from West Africa to the Canary Islands, resulting in a significant surge in arrivals. In just one week, nearly 800 people have reached four islands, highlighting the ongoing humanitarian crisis faced by many who undertake this treacherous journey.

Recent Migrant Arrivals

Authorities report that four large wooden cayucos and several smaller inflatable boats successfully reached El Hierro, Tenerife, Lanzarote, and Fuerteventura over the past seven days. This influx comes despite a 59% drop in overall migrant arrivals so far this year, indicating that the recent improvement in sea conditions has triggered a sharp rise in crossings.

Since last Monday, 779 migrants have survived the perilous crossing, which is considered one of the most dangerous in the world. Tragically, between three and five individuals are feared missing after attempting to swim to a cargo ship that was assisting a semi-sunken inflatable boat located 83 kilometers northeast of Lanzarote. This incident underscores the risks that migrants face as they seek safety and a better life.

Among the survivors, 55 individuals, including 11 women and two minors, were rescued by the Guardamar Polimnia and safely brought to shore. This latest tragedy adds to the grim toll of 400 deaths recorded so far this year on this perilous route, raising urgent questions about the safety and support available to those fleeing dire circumstances.

Details of Recent Crossings

In another operation, the Salvamar Acrux successfully brought 51 migrants, comprising 49 men and two women of Maghrebi origin, to the port of Arrecife after they were spotted by a Maritime Rescue aircraft 78 kilometers off Lanzarote. On the same day, a large cayuco arrived at La Restinga, El Hierro, carrying just 28 men, including three minors. The unusually low number of passengers, coupled with a surplus of supplies, led police to suspect that this group may have been intercepted during boarding operations in Kamsar, Guinea, over 2,000 kilometers away.

Two days earlier, El Hierro had already received a “supercayuco” with 230 people on board, including 13 women and six children. The vessel had been detected 18 kilometers south of the island by Spain’s coastal surveillance radar system (SIVE). This highlights the ongoing challenges faced by authorities in monitoring and responding to migrant crossings.

Another large cayuco, carrying 206 people, reached Los Cristianos (Tenerife) after being met 11 kilometers off Punta Rasca by the Salvamar Alpheratz. The migrants reported that they had departed from Gambia, made a brief stop in Senegal, and spent a grueling eight days at sea before finally reaching Tenerife. Their harrowing journey reflects the lengths to which many are willing to go in search of safety and opportunity.

Over the weekend, an additional 99 migrants, including ten women and four minors, arrived under their own power at La Restinga, while an inflatable boat carrying 58 people, 14 women and one child, landed on Fuerteventura’s southern coast at Morro Jable. A day earlier, another 52 Maghrebi migrants reached Arrecife, Lanzarote, in a small zodiac. With the calm autumn seas expected to persist, Maritime Rescue, the Red Cross, hospitals, and reception centers across the islands, particularly on El Hierro, are bracing for more arrivals in the coming weeks.

Future Projections

Despite the recent surge in arrivals, the total number of migrants expected to reach the Canary Islands in 2025 is likely to remain significantly below last year’s record-breaking figure of 46,843. The Ministry of the Interior has logged 13,491 arrivals up to mid-October, indicating a complex and evolving situation.

Most of those making the dangerous voyage are fleeing poverty, conflict, and climate change, with the situation further complicated by instability in the Sahel, Russian influence in the region, and cuts to international aid. According to the latest Frontex Annual Risk Analysis for 2025–26, high migratory pressure on the Canary Islands is expected to persist through the end of the year as these humanitarian crises deepen.

Key points

• Almost 800 migrants arrived in the Canary Islands in one week due to calm seas.
• Four large cayucos and several inflatable boats reached El Hierro, Tenerife, Lanzarote, and Fuerteventura.
• 779 migrants survived the crossing, but 3-5 are feared missing.
• 400 deaths have been recorded on the route so far this year.
• Maritime Rescue and hospitals are preparing for more arrivals in the coming weeks.
• Total arrivals in 2025 are expected to be below last year’s figure of 46,843.
• Most migrants are fleeing poverty, conflict, and climate change.