Argentina’s Legislative Elections: A Crucial Test for President Milei Amidst Political Turmoil

Argentina is set to hold significant legislative elections this Sunday, where President Javier Milei’s far-right policies will be put to the test against the opposition.

As the elections approach, Milei faces a challenging political landscape marked by the resignation of two ministers, market instability, and a scandal involving a candidate linked to drug trafficking. Despite a financial rescue from the United States, the volatility surrounding the Argentine dollar persists. Former President Donald Trump has cautioned Milei, stating, “If you lose the elections, we will not be generous with Argentina.”

With 36.4 million eligible voters, the elections will determine the fate of 127 deputies in the Lower House and 24 senators from a total of 72. At a campaign event in Rosario, Milei urged supporters not to lose hope, asserting, “This time the effort is worth it, let us not stop halfway.” He criticized Congress as being ineffective, claiming, “When this year began and the economy was running at full speed, they started to implement the machine of obstruction.” Despite these challenges, he expressed confidence that Argentina would see real change following the elections.

Political Landscape and Challenges

The outcome of these elections is crucial for the ruling party’s ability to maintain its ultra-liberal spending cuts and will significantly influence the country’s economic direction. Currently, Milei’s party holds a minority in Congress, having secured just over 30% of the vote in the first round of the presidential elections held earlier this year. The government aims to secure at least one-third of both chambers to uphold vetoes on critical legislation, including pension increases and budgets for public hospitals and universities.

In the lead-up to the elections, internal conflicts have emerged within Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA). The planned cabinet changes were overshadowed by the resignations of Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein and Justice Minister Mariano Cúneo Libarona. These departures highlight the ongoing disputes within the party, which has established a presence in all 23 provinces and the City of Buenos Aires. In several provinces, including the capital, LLA is collaborating with the conservative PRO party, founded by former President Mauricio Macri.

Just as Milei won with an angry vote in 2023, the same is happening now but in the opposite direction.

— Jorge Taiana, Candidate of Fuerza Patria in the Province of Buenos Aires

Despite the crises and declining support due to corruption allegations involving Milei and his sister, Karina Milei, the party is attempting to project confidence ahead of the elections. The scandals include issues related to the cryptocurrency $LIBRA and bribery in public drug procurement, alongside cuts in essential services such as disability support. Labour, tax, and pension reforms remain contentious topics, facing significant opposition from various sectors of society.

Opposition’s Resurgence and Recent Setbacks

The electoral front Fuerza Patria, which combines Peronism and centre-left parties, is optimistic about its prospects in the upcoming elections. Recent successes, such as a 14-point victory in the legislative elections of the Province of Buenos Aires, have bolstered their confidence. This region, a stronghold for Peronism, accounts for 37% of the electorate and reflects widespread discontent over declining living standards and threats to public services.

Jorge Taiana, a former Foreign Minister and leading candidate for Fuerza Patria, expressed his belief that the current government is failing. He stated, “Just as Milei won with an angry vote in 2023, I believe it is the same but in reverse now. The Government is a disaster, with inadequately prepared people and a series of fanciful projects that are ruining the country.”

Milei has maintained an artificially low dollar to ensure votes in these elections.

— Ricardo Aronskind, Economist and Economic Researcher

In Buenos Aires, the situation has been further complicated by the resignation of LLA’s main candidate, José Luis Espert, who stepped down due to allegations of connections with a businessman facing drug trafficking charges. Despite his resignation, his name remains on the provincial ballots, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the elections.

Key points

• Argentina’s legislative elections will determine the future of President Javier Milei’s far-right policies.
• Over 36 million eligible voters will choose 127 deputies and 24 senators.
• Milei’s party currently holds a minority in Congress, having secured just over 30% of the vote in the presidential elections.
• Internal disputes within La Libertad Avanza have led to the resignation of two ministers.
• The opposition coalition Fuerza Patria has gained momentum following a recent electoral victory in Buenos Aires.
• Corruption scandals involving Milei and his sister have contributed to declining support for the ruling party.
• Speculation surrounds the impact of an artificially low dollar on the upcoming elections.